Who Moved My Singapore Cheese

Below is the latest figures on the recently launched BTO flats in Punggol [taken from HDB's website], as of 30th Nov 2009, which is the last day of the application window period. While it still has 24 hours more to run, the final figures shouldn't differ from the below by too much.

Once again, the demand-supply ratio doesn't bode well for first time applicants with 5x and 8x oversubscription for 4 and 5 room flats respectively in what is very nondescript run-of-the-mill overpriced flats in Punggol estate which requires 4 years of time-to-completion (not the "water-front" variety announced with all that hoohaa). Going by this demand figure, despite the planned successive launches of BTO flats in 2010, resale flat price spike should have enough legs to run for another year by my humble estimation. Mah Bow Tan's recently declared statistics of 96% of first time applicants succeeding within 2 attempts (and 80% succeeding on the first attempt) somehow intuitively doesn't blend well with the numbers below.

As a side note, this housing inflation period timeline will most likely overlap into the impending 2010/2011 election and provide much fodder for opposition parties to deliberate upon. As such, I think that PAP will be exerting further internal pressure on Mah to solve this problem with more drastic measures albeit tempered with maxims such as "cool, not crash" aimed at a softer landing.

What will happen next in our bubbling public housing prices is going to be really anybody's guess. In a way, Adam Smith's invisible hand might soon be showing its mighty influence can seep over into political outcomes as well.